thanks for the links back to FO

by Jay, San Diego, Thursday, March 05, 2009, 07:56 (6293 days ago) @ LaFortune Teller
edited by Jay, Thursday, March 05, 2009, 10:42

I'll admit it's been a long time since I looked at the DVOA formula (even though I know it's a staple for the pro analyses at FO).

50% on first down and 70% on second down makes sense for most plays (as does 100% on 3rd & 4th, obviously). But do they still make sense if you're in a first-and-long or second-and-long situation?

If you've got 1st & 15 due to a false start, is getting 7.5 yards enough to set you up for success on subsequent downs? I don't think so. Now you're at 2nd and 8. Since first & 10 is the most common down & distance, and we want 5 yards in that situation, doesn't it follow that our "ideal" second down situation is 5 yards or less? If that's the case, on 1st & 15, should we want 10 yards instead? Just thinking aloud here.