I'm not sure.

by Three D, Friday, May 15, 2009, 09:43 (6222 days ago) @ Jay

There are still a whole lot of crap teams and quite frankly, it's hard to put a good interpretive feel on ND when you're unsure of the quality of opponent. There's two aspects to "what does it tell us" that I think start getting muddled: progress of the team and retention of Weis. I'll lean on the actual play of the team more than record to evaluate the team's progress. Retention, however, is likely going to be based mostly on W/L (and I think that's appropriate after 5 years for a HC).

So, what does the schedule offer in terms of opposition, that you can point to right now and say, "these games will tell us something!" Really, there's USC and a bunch of question marks this year. UM could be 6-6 or worse (please, oh please oh please) MSU could take a big step back as could BC, but beating BC would be a very good statement regardless. UConn could surprise but probably not as they lost a lot. Stanford at the end of the year will probably be better than people expect at this time.

In terms of retention, it's very unbalanced with (I think) 3 outcomes directly related to schedule:

1 - We win them all and it's clear the team has improved significantly. A bunch of 11-1 scenarios also fit here. Weis stays. (and most are good with it)

2 - We lose more than 4 and it's clear that the team has not improved at all. There are very few scenarios of how the season plays out, outside of major injury, that don't lead to this conclusion. Weis goes. (and most are good with it)

3- We win 9 +/- 1 games and depending on how the games are played, we're likely left with a whole bunch of questions. There are a few 10-2 scenarios that would suggest good things are ahead, but there are a few 10-2 scenarios that would not. It could very well be the case that after 10-2 or 9-3 we'd still be in a situation where we wouldn't really know what to expect from 2010. And, those (9-3 for me) scenarios are the ones that worry me the most. (nobody really knows for certain what to do, though some will say they know what to do). I can't think of very many 8-4 scenarios where I would be all that high on retention. Thankfully, I don't have to make that decision because I think 9-3 is the most likely season outcome. And damn, most 9-3 scenarios make it a really tough decision.

I'm not a huge "Fire Weis" guy nor am I a "Give him more time" guy. I'd have supported his firing at the end of last year if a proven high-caliber coach had been lined up. I would not have supported it at all if another search akin to 2004 or 2001/2 had resulted.

I like Charlie's offense, though I don't and wouldn't run it. I (think) I understand it. I can appreciate the depth and roster issues he's had to overcome. But at the end of the day in my egocentric view, I really want him to succeed because that would mean ND is succeeding and yet, there are a bunch of ways the season could play out, including what I think is the most likely, where I'll be left wondering and not sure about the team's future once again.