If we're going to indulge the ND NC fantasy

by JRT, Island of Misfit Toys, Tuesday, May 12, 2009, 19:49 (6224 days ago) @ Pete
edited by JRT, Wednesday, May 13, 2009, 08:41

I think the weak schedule is what could get ND into an NC game.

Let's assume the team next is going to be good-but certainly not great, or dominant. The only way to get an NC with that kind of team is to run the table on a soft schedule with one proving game-if ND could upset USC, the schedule is soft enough for us to potentially run the rest of the table. Then, while we're fantasizing, we could get another slightly lucky team in the NC game-maybe a Big Ten team that ran through a down conference, or something.

This is all very, very low probability stuff, but I think it's more likely for a team of our (imagined) caliber to run a soft schedule than to go 11-1 against a tough slate and look good enough doing it to get the AP votes to advance over the other inevitable 11-1 teams.

Other years, with a stronger team, I would want a tougher schedule to make sure we could show our ability, and allow for redemption if we did blow one. But this year I think this kind of team (let's say we think they are around the 10th-20th best team in the country) in terms of ND (low) probabilities, benefits from a soft schedule.

The kicker might be if we have a pretty darn good team but lose of a close one to USC-then the soft schedule might prevent us from getting a top-quality win in. If we were to lose another game beside USC, we might potentially get shunned if the BCS perceives it to be 20065/2006 all over again, but my guess would be a 10-2 team would get a BCS bowl game, even with the soft slate.