Scheduling as an Independent.

by LaFortune Teller , South Bend, Saturday, February 04, 2012, 09:49 (5240 days ago)

I'm trying to wrap my head around the scheduling squeeze going forward. Irishoutsider suggested that a conference schedule might not be all that different from what our schedules are now in terms of lack of variety.

That isn't really true, however. As I mentioned below, ND played 32 different teams from 2001-2010. ND played 31 different teams from 1991-2000. Under various conference scenarios and with annual games with USC and Navy retained, ND would likely play only 20-23 different teams per decade.

If we were to create an idealized independent schedule, what does the variety of opponents actually look like? And how might that fit with the future landscape? And if it doesn't fit, did the 'seismic shift' alreay happen without much fanfare?

How would you answer the following?

In a decade, we should play ...

USC x10 (h/h)
Navy x10 (h/n)
Michigan x6 (h/h) Ohio State x4 (h/h)
Texas x4 (h/h) Oklahoma x4 (h/h) LSU x2 (h/h)
Stanford x4 (h/h) Miami x4 (h/h) Florida State x2 (h/h)
Michigan State x6 (h/h) ACC x2 (h/h) ACC x2 (h/h)
Purdue x6 (h/h) BE x2 (h/h) BE x2 (h/h)
Pittsburgh x4 (h/h) Boston College x4 (h/h) B1G x2 (h/h)

The above should be our 8-game "independent conference" schedule. 12 "regular" teams we play at least 4 times in a decade, plus seven other home-and-homes with interesting major conference opponents.

That would allow for 40 more games to schedule in a decade. If we scheduled 20 of those games as home-and-homes with 10 teams, we could schedule the other 20 as a combination of one-offs home or at neutral sites.

39 different opponents in a decade.

***

The issues, as I see them, with this model and the future landscape:

- Six games per decade with Michigan might be a challenge. We might be cut out entirely when the B1G/P12 challenge kicks in and Michigan wants only one tough non-conference game.
- Same problem with Ohio State (or fill in any other B1G heavyweight). I think Michigan State and Purdue would be game, but who knows.
- It doesn't seem like a huge stretch to convince LSU (or another SEC heavyweight) to a home-and-home once a decade. But I'll believe it when I see it in their new configuration.
- Florida State has Florida and may never agree to another top non-conf game with 9 gmae schedules. Miami is an easier sell since they don't have an annual non-conf opponent.
- Pitt, BC, and any other ACCs might be the same issue, but again, they should have some flexibility that FSU would not.

The unknown challenge is the inflexibilty of dates due to bloating conferences and their TV contracts.

I think it is possible to schedule a model like I have laid out, but I think we are at the precipice of not being able to do so.