Starting Experience at ND: 2005 thru 2009 (projected)

by FunkDoctorSpock, Your Nightmares, B* tches, Wednesday, February 25, 2009, 13:22 (6300 days ago)
edited by FunkDoctorSpock, Wednesday, February 25, 2009, 13:28

This the number of starts that the players at each position group had at the start of the season. (if anyone wants to throw this into one of them fancy graphs, please do):


2005 SEASON
QB: 21
OL: 102
RB: 16
WR: 32
TE: 20
RB: 16
TOTAL: 191

DL: 18
LB: 16
DB: 15
TOTAL: 51

OVERALL: 242
COMMENTS: Of Weis's first four teams, this was the most experienced overall on offense and, in particular, along the offensive line. The lack of experience on defense was the main reason I decided to give Minter something of a pass even though ND finished 75th in Total Defense.


2006 SEASON
QB: 33
OL: 91
WR: 32
TE: 15
RB: 16
TOTAL: 187

DL: 66
LB: 12
DB: 66
TOTAL: 144

OVERALL: 331
COMMENTS: The most experienced team of the Weis Era. While many feel the offense took a step back in 2006 I've always felt that the unit was just about as good as the 2005 group. They played six Top 30 defenses. What dragged them down was the lack of depth at tailback and OL. The performance overall of the defense was unacceptable. They only improved to 65th in Total Defense. The number that jumps out, though, is the lack of experience at LB. That said, there was still more than enough talent to much better.


2007 SEASON
QB: 0
OL: 46
WR: 8
TE: 19
RB: 5
TOTAL: 78

DL: 26
LB: 34
DB: 66
TOTAL: 126

OVERALL: 204
COMMENTS: Sh*t show.

2008 SEASON
QB: 11
OL: 60
WR: 34
TE: 3
RB: 20
TOTAL: 128

DL: 18
LB: 57
DB: 36
TOTAL: 111

OVERALL: 239
COMMENTS: Inconsistency, thy name is the 2008 Fighting Irish. As expected, the offense improved signficantly but still was absolutely maddening. The defense, while not overly talented, played hard all year.

2009 SEASON (projected)
QB: 22
OL: 100
WR: 46
TE: 13
RB: 22
TOTAL: 202

DL: 44
LB: 19
DB: 60
TOTAL: 123

OVERALL: 325
COMMENTS: Projected to be the most experienced offense of the Weis Era. Experience, in my opinion, matters more on offense and, in particular, at QB and OL. The team should gave the second most experienced OL. The big switch with the DL having more experience than the LBs is simply a product of including Neal, Ryan, and Fleming. Overall, this team has no excuse to play at anything less than the level that we saw in 2005 and 2006.

Good stuff

by Jeff (BGS) @, A starter home in suburban Tempe, Thursday, February 26, 2009, 06:29 (6299 days ago) @ FunkDoctorSpock

This would make a good post.

What would you say is the best case for any position? I would think an average of two full seasons of experience at any position would be excellent (three might be better at individual positions like QB & TE). I ask, because the RB number looks consistently low. Is the running game bad because of it, or is the number low because the running game is bad?

Behold the Graphs!

by Savage, Around Ye Olde Colonial College, Wednesday, February 25, 2009, 22:46 (6299 days ago) @ FunkDoctorSpock

These are the numbers per position (so OL total is divided by 5, WR by 3, DL by 3, LB by 4, and DB by 4. I suppose it could have been WR by 2.5 and RB by 1.5, but it doesn't really matter so long as the two years are scaled equivalently, which they are.

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Tags:
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That 2008 LB marker...

by domer.mq ⌂ @, Saturday, February 28, 2009, 22:15 (6296 days ago) @ Savage

Man, what a "damned stat" that one might look like after 2009.

--
Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.

Variation on a theme

by Pat, Friday, February 27, 2009, 06:02 (6298 days ago) @ Savage

I'm working on a BGS post that lists out returning playing time at each position. Now that I've done the post for a few years, I threw all the numbers into a very basic spreadsheet and noted the low point for each position (red) and high point (yellow).

Nothing surprising, but another visual representation of returning experience during the Charlie Era.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pgVYtu2gX2Z9vL6wGDLMOBw

The downfall of this metric though is that it doesn't account for guys like Paul Duncan, Mike Ragone, or Darrin Walls for 2009. Maybe I should do a little more work and come up with a cumulative career returning minutes measure. That would look mostly like Funk/Savage's data, but would also include important backups.

Idea

by Three D, Friday, February 27, 2009, 10:38 (6298 days ago) @ Pat
edited by Three D, Friday, February 27, 2009, 12:11

Would you be able to tease apart total minutes and minutes as a starter, at least in some estimated way?

If that were possible, you could weigh minutes played less than minutes played as a starter, which accounts for getting on the field but not as much as getting on the field with the first team.

I realize that for offensive skill positions that may be less meaningful because of all the substitution, but it might give a reasonable estimate of quality playing time versus mop-up time.

For example, for all the minutes Gray has at RB, I would hesitate to use any of them as meaningful first-team type of minutes (I may be forgetting some playing time, if so, I apologize).

maybe

by Pat, Friday, February 27, 2009, 11:50 (6298 days ago) @ Three D

but I think even playing in garbage time should count for something. Should Jonas Gray need to come into the game at a crucial juncture, those carries against Washington, Navy, and Hawaii certainly won't hurt. He won't be starry-eyed at his first chance to carry the football in a Notre Dame uniform. Heck, he might have even learned something from his fumble against Navy. The same holds for other positions I would think. About the only one where a bit of PT might not mean much are for the WRs who show up to watch ND run the ball during the final few minutes of a game. Along that line, I hope Crist gets to actually throw the ball more than once when he gets into games this season.

Wow. That's great.

by Pete, Thursday, February 26, 2009, 14:13 (6299 days ago) @ Savage

And it's also makes clear that the only "inward" point on the 2009 squad is linebacker, which also conveniently happens to have gotten one of the largest talent boosts via recruiting. Could be a very interesting year.

sweet

by Jay, San Diego, Thursday, February 26, 2009, 10:50 (6299 days ago) @ Savage
edited by Jay, Thursday, February 26, 2009, 12:17

They look like the results of one those Briggs-Meyers personality tests!

2007 was definitely an "Introvert."

The most important indication of the 2009 graph...

by Slainte Joe @, Raleigh, Thursday, February 26, 2009, 07:31 (6299 days ago) @ Savage

aside from the fact that we generally will be an experienced team, is that we are experienced in the most important positions. Although all experience helps, I think the three most important positions in which to have experience are QB, OL, and DL.

QB and OL are obvious, I think. With the DL, I would equate experience with physical maturity, which is important. A 5-star stud is probably better as a senior than a freshman. In contrast, experience seems less critical at positions like WR and RB (and maybe even DB, although I might be talking out my can on that).

At any rate, we are extremely experienced at QB and OL and, surprisingly, decently experienced at DL.

Lee Harvey, you are a madman!

by FunkDoctorSpock, Your Nightmares, B* tches, Thursday, February 26, 2009, 06:36 (6299 days ago) @ Savage

I wanna party with you, cowboy.

Seriously, that's great work. Thanks.

Well done

by Three D, Thursday, February 26, 2009, 06:10 (6299 days ago) @ Savage
edited by Three D, Thursday, February 26, 2009, 07:09

Really well done. I use this kind of graph with teachers and their students' assessment profiles. I had read the original post and am embarrassed to admit that my original thought was that tables would be just as sufficient as graphs in this case. I'm always happy to be wrong and it happens a lot.

It's interesting to see the bizarre shaped of 2007, as is 2005. Obviously big circles are ideal, small circles not so much.

I wonder what ND's historical data and also what top 10 teams' charts would look like (not a request for additional work).

I'm going to guess that 1 or 2 major indentations could be tolerated (producing the pac-man shape), but more than 1 major indentation on one side of the ball I would find it unlikely to be successful.

Savage, excellent job!


Another thought - if you anchored the maximum, you could overlay 'talent' rather than the second year on the graph by multiplying star rating by a common factor. For example, if you set your maximum to 25, you could multiply star-rating by position by 5 (which would still be fairly easily interpretable) and you could see the 'talent' by 'experience' interaction. I suppose the maximum possible would be closer to 40 than 25 (a 3-year starter heading into his 4th season on a team playing 13 games per year).

Shamwow!

by Spesh ⌂ @, Los Angeles, Thursday, February 26, 2009, 05:33 (6299 days ago) @ Savage

Good stuff.

Nice work, guys.

by scriptcomesfirst @, Thursday, February 26, 2009, 05:47 (6299 days ago) @ Spesh

Very user friendly. Now, I can send out an army of trained monkeys to explain this dynamic to the masses.

I know you're just being conservative...

by BPH, San Diego, Wednesday, February 25, 2009, 18:26 (6299 days ago) @ FunkDoctorSpock

but there's no excuse for this team not to play at an even higher level than the 2005-06 squads. The experience levels may be similar, but the overall talent level in 2009 as measured by recruiting rankings will be significantly higher. The schedule, on paper, is easier. And the coaching should also be significantly better, depending in part on how Verducci works out. In particular, the defensive trio of Brown, Tenuta and Hart is vastly superior.

True.

by FunkDoctorSpock, Your Nightmares, B* tches, Wednesday, February 25, 2009, 19:39 (6299 days ago) @ BPH

However, if we finish in the Top Ten, I'm good with that.

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