Cornyn vs Paxton. Which one is Talarico most likely to beat?

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he can't stand the idea that the GOP could be successful without him. Deep down, he wants Vance or Rubio to lose in 2028 and (if he's alive then) say "see, they can't win without me."

Reagan was actually part of a coherent low-tax, low-regulation philosophy and it carried forward.

Trump has nothing that can be carried forward without Trump. It's a cult-like attachment to a demented personality who has turned government into a kleptocracy.

Texas politics are complicated and I'm not an expert, but it seems like Paxton would be more vulnerable.

Trump also has really hurt whatever relationship he had with the Senate GOP. He forced out Tillis, Cassidy, and Conryn all of whom were well-liked by other GOP Senators. Between having to deal with them for another 7 months and having Senators like Collins in tough races he's going to have a hell of time getting anything passed, but he either doesn't care or doesn't know that.

--
"It's our blood and bones and these whistles and phones against Miller's and Noem's dirty lies."

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which I read apparently has great significance in the 2 major US parties as its a key criteria for assignment to committees and for committee leadership positions.

"Key Facts About His Seniority Status:

Overall Rank: 11th out of 100

GOP Rank: He (Cornyn) is one of the longest-serving Republicans, outranked in seniority by only a handful of colleagues such as Chuck Grassley (1981) and Mitch McConnell (1985).

Committee Benefits: Because congressional seniority dictates committee placement and power, Cornyn holds highly influential positions. Despite serving as the top Republican on key legislative panels, he holds the notable distinction of being the most senior senator in the chamber who is not actively serving as a committee chair or ranking member.

Past Leadership: Because of his substantial seniority and standing, he previously served as the Senate Majority Whip from 2013 to 2019."

Now Ted Cruz (52nd overall out of 100) is the senior guy from Texas ... which is a pretty big loss in pork barrel opportunities for Texas.

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It looks like it was mostly MAGA who turned out to vote in the GOP primaries.

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Cornyn’s vote count went down from 900K to 500K.

Talarico got 1.2M voters in the primary and Crockett over 1M.

Menwhile, in 2016, both Cruz and O’Rourke got over 4M votes in the general election.

This is going to be one massive money sink of an election this year.

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Those Trump pushed out have no reason to do anything he asks and may even be incented to torpedo things he cares about. The three you mentioned have limited (if any) careers in politics after. So long as they protect relationships that allow them to consult or lobby, what do they care if they raise Trump’s ire?

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Including for one’s family in getting on the wrong side of MAGA. Harrasment, likely some swatting, and potentially worse.

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He’s utterly spineless. And in any event, he should have decided on his own that he is too old for that office. Talarico has a shot, less than 50/50 for sure but the best odds for a state wide candidate in a long time. Will need to run a flawless campaign to win and hope that Trump continues to sink in popularity.

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https://bsky.app/profile/jamestalarico.bsky.social/post/3mmsepeeqe22o

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and there's quite a few more.

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He loves having the power to primary and eject anyone he wants from elected office (on the Republican side). He knew that Paxton may have won even if Trump endorsed Cornyn, which he was close to doing in March, and having his endorsed candidate lose would not be something he could handle (I think he makes up stats of his "endorsements" being 1,000-0). So even though Cornyn would likely pull out a 3-4% win even in a terrible environment, Trump went with Paxton, who definitely is more his loyal, kindred spirit. Corrupt, criminal adulterer is the perfect Trump Senate candidate.

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Just the latest of many examples of him choosing retribution and loyalty over what’s best for the party in the midterms.

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and his own protection and enrichment. Now that he's grabbing with both hands in term two, it's utterly insane to me that there are people who are still scratching their heads over his "abandonment" of the party a decade later. Like he ever gave a flying fuck about you or your slackjawed, idiot supporters who got all jammed up over inflation and caped for Tarriff Man instead. Use your fucking brain for once, frog.

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the Polo Grounds

Cornyn vs Paxton. Which one is Talarico most likely to beat?

Trump is sinking the GOP on purpose --

Losing Cornyn = massive loss in seniority

GOP voting numbers in Texas were really low

Yup, Paxton got almost the exact same vote count as Primary

The impact over the next 7 months will be interesting…

Generally true, but there are safety considerations

Cornyn deserved what happened

“the people versus Ken Paxton”

Paxton for sure

So Trump shot himself in the foot?

He's done it before. Herschel Walker. Mehmet Oz

Trump actually cares more about perception than one seat

Yep

He's never cared about anything other than himself