Or maybe they did and chose to ignore it.

the rule about there needing to be an intervening election seems hard to overlook.

--
"It's our blood and bones and these whistles and phones against Miller's and Noem's dirty lies."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/judge-blocks-virginia-new-congressional-maps-redistricting...

[eyeroll]

Carlson is as terrible as ever, if not worse. These people think Trump is soft.

confused a lot of voters. People were pissed once we laid out the facts to them, and it had a material difference in changing people’s votes.

Short answer: it’s basically a wash nationally right now—very small net differences either way (on the order of ~0–2 seats), not a big swing for one party overall. But the state-by-state moves are real and could still shift.

Here’s the clearest breakdown based on current 2026 redistricting reporting:

⸻

???? National “net” impact so far

* One widely cited early estimate:
* ~+7 potential GOP seats from Republican-led redraws
* ~+7 potential Democratic seats from Democratic responses
→ ≈ net 0 overall
* After the latest moves (like Virginia):
* Roughly 10 districts now favor Democrats vs ~9 favor Republicans
→ Democrats ahead by ~+1 seat

???? So depending on timing:

* Earlier: even
* Now (after Virginia): Democrats maybe +1 seat edge

⸻

????️ Where those gains are coming from

Democratic gains

* Virginia: up to +4 seats
* California: about +5 seats (referendum-driven)
* Utah (court ruling): ~+1 seat

Republican gains

* Texas: up to +5 seats under proposed maps
* North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio: smaller gains (≈ +1 each in some estimates)

⸻

⚠️ Important context (why the numbers are fuzzy)

* Many maps are still being challenged in court
* Some are proposed, not final
* A few states (like Florida) could still change things
* “Potential seats” ≠ guaranteed wins—just districts tilted by the new maps

⸻

???? Bottom line

* Democrats have not gained a large net advantage overall.
* The redistricting fight has mostly canceled itself out nationally.
* Right now:
* Best estimate: Democrats ahead by ~0 to +1 seat
* Range of uncertainty: maybe ±2 seats either way

(1) I really hope that these extreme efforts are temporary and serious anti-gerrymandering polices get established. I really hope there arent any stupid democrats that abuse these hopefully temporary changes.

(2) I’ve heard a few social media nutters say folks like Tucker Carlson etc are now starting to separate more from Trump (especially post-Orban loss) in an effort to whitewash their atrocious behavior since Trump’s lame duck position is becoming more of an accepted part of his leadership. Obviously, with all the corruption trials needed post-Trump, I really hope people dont let Trump’s enablers whitewash their atrocious behavior.

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I know the answer but post 59 with 2 kids in High School, I can't think most days.

Anyone know what this nets vs GOP gerrymandering in other states?

My hunch is that it would have passed easily if the Republicans hadn’t fooled a lot of people about which side they thought they were voting for.

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Is there a difference in Virginia that might cause them to strike it down?

As a long ago co-worker of mine who had a cornpone saying for everything once said to me, "if you try to pull the wool over people's eyes too hard, they can see through the little holes."

I saw interviews this morning with some black voters who were downright insulted by the implication.

feel better about all this. It's undoubtedly "yucky," but (comically) not illegal.

but Virginia is the only state where the limit is one single term. They can (and often do) serve nonconsecutive terms.

Upon doing some digging the "why" goes back to colonial times and the idea of keeping the power more broadly with "the people" via state legislature rather than consolidated with the state's chief executive.

behind Virginia governors not being able to run for reelection?

However, after moving from Northern Virginia to Central Virginia, I had serious doubts this was gong to pass.

Seeing comments from these rural folks on various social media (FB Groups I joined to stay up on local zoning, festivals, etc.), makes me really sad for this country and the utter lack of knowledge about our Government.

I know general Civics knowledge is horrible but I honestly did not think it was this bad. I would say 50% of the people posting don't really know the difference between the US Congress and the VA House of Delegates.

I also think GOV Spanberger is one of the most courageous politicians in years. Virginia Governors can't run for reelection so she is going hard and doing great things. However, this vote will probably doom her national prospects. Aside from the pure misogyny of this country, Thiel and other special interests spent millions on AI ads demonizing her, lying about taxes that were never passed, etc.

Most of these urged me to "Protect Minority Representation," complete with pictures of concerned looking Black and Latin folks, plus out-of-context quotes from Obama. The tv ads were more honest, at least, what with the scare-mongering about illegal immigrants, but someone sure wanted me and my neighbors to think voting No was my duty as a progressive.

FWIW, I voted Yes with a clear conscience, no shower needed.

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with disinformation. Thankfully, Obama and a handful of other high profile figures recorded messages that they were strongly in support of this measure, and pointed to the temporary nature of the initiative in these extraordinary times.

Congratulations to the entire Say Yes team for making this happen.

I think sophisticated voters knew they needed to counteract the Texas bullshit with this stop gap measure. Hopefully they can pass some meaningful anti-gerrymandering measures after this.

I share the sentiments of people who felt like they had to vote "yes" and then take a long shower.

It's terrible for democracy to have so few competitive districts in the House but it would be more terrible to have the GOP hang onto the House. And it may be that some of these districts that are gerrymandered turn out to be competitive by accident. At least a couple of Texas's five "new" GOP districts are shaping up to be close races.

As usual, anti-democratic stuff started with Trump.

I wish there were some objective measure that the partisan distribution of voters in district in a multi-district state can't exceed some threshold. I've said it many times before, the Supreme Court had the chance to put the brakes on this in Rucho v. Common Cause in 2019 but passed on it.

--
"It's our blood and bones and these whistles and phones against Miller's and Noem's dirty lies."