the relatively weak schedule doesn't bother me all that much

I don't suffer any delusions that we'll be competing for a national championship this year, so I'm stowing my usual SOS tirades. We'll still have a benchmark game against Southern Cal (and then perhaps a quality bowl opponent, assuming we get one). Even if the rest of the schedule ends up softer than a popped souffle, we'll still have a game or two to measure ourselves by.

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it's horseshit and I sure as hell wouldn't make a special trip to see any but 2 games (@UM, SC) and I wouldn't go to UM this year. It's historically poor quality and has 2 teams that shouldn't be gracing ND's schedule (yet).

I'm not going to say that Nevada or Connecticut should never be on ND's schedule, but they really haven't earned it yet, in my opinion. Yes I do mean "earned" despite our crappy performance the past 15 years and I also understand why Nevada is on the schedule. ND still carries certain cache and it's a shame that it's being watered down. Worse, it appears that it is or was being systematically watered down and as a fan it makes the games less appealing.

As far as the team goes, I've yet to see any strong empirical support that playing a very tough schedule "prepares" you for a bowl. That said, there is reason to believe that it does to an extent. I'm neither dismissing nor endorsing that notion. However, there are PR benefits to a tougher schedule that will help grant some benefit of the doubt at the end of the season. 11-1 ND playing the 2009 schedule might not get much benefit of the doubt for consideration in the NC game. 11-1 ND playing the 1991 (sort of randomly chosen) schedule most certainly would. Not that they'd beat out two 12-0 teams, but if it came down to a handful of 11-1 teams, I'm very confident that ND would be in a good position.

And I agree, Jay, I'm not holding out for a NC run this year, but it still matters for the team's sake and not just as a fan. If we finish 10-2 and don't go to BCS bowl (possible), it still leaves some doubt depending on which team and how those 2 are lost. These kids really need to beat some good teams and beat them soundly.

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Scheduling, as a philosophy, is a topic near and dear to my heart, and I'm not here to claim that I'm "happy" with the makeup of 2009. However, I think that's a separate topic. What I was trying respond to was the idea that somehow a good record against these teams "won't tell us much."

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There are still a whole lot of crap teams and quite frankly, it's hard to put a good interpretive feel on ND when you're unsure of the quality of opponent. There's two aspects to "what does it tell us" that I think start getting muddled: progress of the team and retention of Weis. I'll lean on the actual play of the team more than record to evaluate the team's progress. Retention, however, is likely going to be based mostly on W/L (and I think that's appropriate after 5 years for a HC).

So, what does the schedule offer in terms of opposition, that you can point to right now and say, "these games will tell us something!" Really, there's USC and a bunch of question marks this year. UM could be 6-6 or worse (please, oh please oh please) MSU could take a big step back as could BC, but beating BC would be a very good statement regardless. UConn could surprise but probably not as they lost a lot. Stanford at the end of the year will probably be better than people expect at this time.

In terms of retention, it's very unbalanced with (I think) 3 outcomes directly related to schedule:

1 - We win them all and it's clear the team has improved significantly. A bunch of 11-1 scenarios also fit here. Weis stays. (and most are good with it)

2 - We lose more than 4 and it's clear that the team has not improved at all. There are very few scenarios of how the season plays out, outside of major injury, that don't lead to this conclusion. Weis goes. (and most are good with it)

3- We win 9 +/- 1 games and depending on how the games are played, we're likely left with a whole bunch of questions. There are a few 10-2 scenarios that would suggest good things are ahead, but there are a few 10-2 scenarios that would not. It could very well be the case that after 10-2 or 9-3 we'd still be in a situation where we wouldn't really know what to expect from 2010. And, those (9-3 for me) scenarios are the ones that worry me the most. (nobody really knows for certain what to do, though some will say they know what to do). I can't think of very many 8-4 scenarios where I would be all that high on retention. Thankfully, I don't have to make that decision because I think 9-3 is the most likely season outcome. And damn, most 9-3 scenarios make it a really tough decision.

I'm not a huge "Fire Weis" guy nor am I a "Give him more time" guy. I'd have supported his firing at the end of last year if a proven high-caliber coach had been lined up. I would not have supported it at all if another search akin to 2004 or 2001/2 had resulted.

I like Charlie's offense, though I don't and wouldn't run it. I (think) I understand it. I can appreciate the depth and roster issues he's had to overcome. But at the end of the day in my egocentric view, I really want him to succeed because that would mean ND is succeeding and yet, there are a bunch of ways the season could play out, including what I think is the most likely, where I'll be left wondering and not sure about the team's future once again.

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Sorry, I posted before expounding.

I don't disagree with anything you've posted. I've also run some scenarios in my head (I think we all have -- it's the pasttime of this offseason, isn't it?) and I think you've laid out the possibilities succinctly.

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Compared to traditional ND schedules, 2009 is very weak. Compared to the rest of the NCAA, not so much. Last season, ND's schedule was ranked 50th and on par with teams such as Penn State, Ohio State, Missouri, Florida State, West Virginia, and Utah. That schedule included 5 games against teams ranked 90th or worse, four of which should be better this season (Mich, UW, Nevada>SD State, UConn>Syracuse). The 2009 schedule seems much less extreme to me, with the difficult opponents having down/rebuilding years (Southern Cal, MSU, Pitt, BC) and the bottom teams improving somewhat, so I don't know if the average will change much.

Without going through all the schedules out there, I suspect that ND's schedule is on par or tougher than most, if not all, of the Big East and Big Ten schools and at least half of the PAC-10 and ACC schools. And, I doubt you'll find more than five non-BCS schools with tougher schedules than the Irish, although that should not be a standard we are ever measured against. I suspect all SEC teams play a tougher schedule due to tough conference opponents, and most of the Big XII teams. So, that puts the Irish somewhere in the middle of the pack wrt schedule. Not somewhere I'd like to stay, but I can live with it for a year.

The schedule should improve in 2010 as the "rebuilders" of '09 get some experience, Michigan improves, and Utah is added.

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Who knows what our SOS is going to look like come December, after a season's worth of actual games. Who knows, Michigan could be good. Michigan State could be terrific. Washington State could turn out to be the class of the Pac 10 (okay, maybe not).

I think what prompted my post was the general bemoaning of how "weak" our schedule might be (and the extrapolation that a 10-2 or 9-3 schedule against a "weak" sched would ensconce a mediocre coach for another few years). I say foo on that. I say we still have a benchmark game against USC, and God willing, another benchmark come January.

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was seeing Hawaii ranked 91st by Sagarin last season. Granted, that includes the blowout loss to ND, but I was hoping we beat a little bit better team than that.

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People who bother to pay attention will be able to see the full landscape by then. By then there'll be more than a few teams who are considered shocking success stories or shocking failures. Figuring out how ND bubbles up in all that shouldn't be so hard. It would be far more an anomaly to end up considering the first 5 opponents to be number 119-115 in the rankings than it would be to end up considering them pretty middling.

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Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.

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Even if we slaughter everyone, it will be rationalized as beating up on a soft schedule. For instance, if we beat an undefeated MSU, it will not be seen as an accurate benchmark; after all, MSU "always falls apart after their first loss." (i.e., "that's why you're Michigan State"). And I wouldn't necessarily disagree. Those early slaughterings may turn out to be worthy victories, but we won't know at that point.

Southern Cal is the first true test. Boston College, depending on their performance to that point, might be. @ Pittsburgh could be. Stanford too, depending. Then the bowl game.

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We could well, somehow, fall into being SoCal's one WTF loss of the season too. As a ND fan I want to scoff at that idea, because I like to think that SoCal always "gets up" for ND, but at this point, none of the kids on the roster can even remember when ND last beat SC.

I'm going to go by the first 5 games. I'm going to analyze the living hell out of what the entire world of CFB is doing and then try to make some judgements on that. SoCal, of course, I hope, will also provide answers, but I really feel like we should be able to look at the first 5 games and say, "This is a legit Top 25 team" or "This team isn't anywhere close to what it should be."

I also think that some of the fundamental things that have kept this team from being any good the last 2 years will be apparent despite win/loss records. Are the OL still taking false steps off the snap? Do the guards make it to the LBs in their combo blocks? Do the RBs make a single cut and go, or are they still dancing? Do the receivers try to round off routes? Can JC pass against cover 2? Can the LBs get clean and make plays before the ball carrier gains 3 yards?

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Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.

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I'm going to be looking at how the team executes rather than the final score. If ND is playing fundamentally sound football, the team can have a successful season. If we're "winning ugly", I'll be disappointed.

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Is if they are, somehow, playing "better football," and yet only win 8 or fewer. I don't have any clue how that could happen, but I just hope that if ND wins 8 or fewer, I'll be able to rant at all the obviously poor fundamentals that the team is practicing.

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Sometimes I rhyme slow sometimes I rhyme quick.

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But I can only see two scenarios where that happens:
1) ND is extremely unlucky on the injury front this season or
2) a handful of teams come out of the woodwork and greatly exceed expectations, resulting in ND losing a handful of close games

Given the talent our opponents have lost from last season and the schedule, scenario #2 is highly unlikely. The teams most capable of putting together surprise seasons are probably MSU, BC, UConn, Stanford, and possibly Michigan). Three of those games are at home, and I have a very hard time believing ND can play good fundamental football and lose more than 1-2 of those games. Playing well and losing will be difficult to do against any team but Southern Cal.

#1 is a possibility for any team, but this season's ND team has the depth that should mitigate a single injury causing the team to tailspin.

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However, I do allow the fantasies of a national championship to lurk in the dark corners of my brain. The odds of that happening are certainly better than what the oddsmakers think it is.

Has Notre Dame ever run into trouble due to their schedule? I mean, sometimes it gets flak from talking heads, but if Notre Dame keeps winning, it keeps getting ranked. We're not some nouveau-riche program that needs to do everything it can to prove its muster; the pollsters typically can't wait to get ND in there and make everything right with the universe.

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I think the weak schedule is what could get ND into an NC game.

Let's assume the team next is going to be good-but certainly not great, or dominant. The only way to get an NC with that kind of team is to run the table on a soft schedule with one proving game-if ND could upset USC, the schedule is soft enough for us to potentially run the rest of the table. Then, while we're fantasizing, we could get another slightly lucky team in the NC game-maybe a Big Ten team that ran through a down conference, or something.

This is all very, very low probability stuff, but I think it's more likely for a team of our (imagined) caliber to run a soft schedule than to go 11-1 against a tough slate and look good enough doing it to get the AP votes to advance over the other inevitable 11-1 teams.

Other years, with a stronger team, I would want a tougher schedule to make sure we could show our ability, and allow for redemption if we did blow one. But this year I think this kind of team (let's say we think they are around the 10th-20th best team in the country) in terms of ND (low) probabilities, benefits from a soft schedule.

The kicker might be if we have a pretty darn good team but lose of a close one to USC-then the soft schedule might prevent us from getting a top-quality win in. If we were to lose another game beside USC, we might potentially get shunned if the BCS perceives it to be 20065/2006 all over again, but my guess would be a 10-2 team would get a BCS bowl game, even with the soft slate.

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I think 2010 is our year to make a legitimate run for a national title. Virtually every core player will be a highly seasoned upperclassmen. We'll have to replace possibly only three starters on offense (Duncan, Olsen, Young) and one on defense (McCarthy - depending on Walls' fifth year and Teo's mission). I could easily see that November game in LA being a de facto national title, like OSU-Michigan in 2006.

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if he has a "Quinn-like" 2009, which is why I'd like to see us compete for the NC this year.

That's my Jimmy Dean special for the week.

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If Colt McCoy wins the Heisman this year, that would make three along with Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow.

Granted winning a Heisman doesn't do much for getting drafted, but it is a fairly crowed QB class coming out next year. Even if you assume that Clausen is far more attractive to the NFL as a pure passer than Tebow, it's still a decent collection of competition.

Taking a look at the guys that might compete with Clausen if he leaves after the 2010 season:

Jake Locker
Jevan Snead (year of eligibility left)
Ryan Mallet (year of eligibility left)
Jarrett Lee (year of eligibility left)
Aaron Corp
Zach Frazer
Terrelle Pryor (would only be a junior)

Pretty crappy talent. Clausen would have to basically stop improving to not be the easy choice as the #1 QB alongside that motley crew.

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how Clausen will be received by the NFL? He's not all that tall or physically strong, he lacks athletic ability, he has an unusual throwing motion that some teams might not like and he has a strong arm but by no means a Stafford-like howitzer.

Accuracy is probably his best trait, which makes him almost the opposite of Quinn from a pro perspective.

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the Polo Grounds

the relatively weak schedule doesn't bother me all that much

As a fan, it bothers me

Oh yes. Undoubtedly.

I'm not sure.

USC, and a bowl game

The schedule is weak, but not that bad

I agree, and there are always surprises

The biggest scare I got when putting together my response

I really think we'll have a benchmark from the first 5 games

I disagree on the first five games part

Problem is...

I think you last paragraph is spot on

My nightmare scenario...

I know what you mean

Me neither.

If we're going to indulge the ND NC fantasy

Assuming we make the expected strides this season...

I think Clausen will declare ...

at least two Heisman winning QBs come out this year

Am I the only one who wonders...