interesting statistic

by Spesh ⌂ @, Los Angeles, Monday, March 16, 2009, 19:56 (6343 days ago)

I've been looking at Weis's use of Regular personnel over the years. Regular would be 2 WR, 2 backs, 1 TE. It was prompted by this quote:

"Usually when we go into that personnel group, James and Asaph are in the game, the teams we're going against knows that there's a good chance, higher chance it's going to be run than pass. Of course, you can never just sell out because it could be a play action shot that you're throwing at the same time." (10/28/08)

But the results just seem off to me.

2008 - ND had 9 opportunities of 2nd & 4 or better. Weis never threw the ball.
2006 - ND had 10 opportunities of 2nd & 4 or better. Weis never threw the ball.
2005 - ND had 19 opportunities of 2nd & 4 or better. Weis called a pass play 4 times. (A fifth time, a run was called, but Quinn threw the look pass to a WR.)

What would cause a play-caller to go from throwing a pass 25% of the time to a consistent 0%? Why did he lose faith in that option?

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Thinking about reasons why. Clarification?

by Three D, Tuesday, March 17, 2009, 08:23 (6342 days ago) @ Spesh

When you say, "2nd & 4 or better" by better you mean shorter, correct?

Also, when you say "ND had X opportunities" you mean that there were X times when the down was 2nd, the distance was 4 or better, and also the team had this particular personnel on the field? In other words, there were more than X opportunities for 2nd & 4 or better, but there were X number in Regular.

Was the number of opportunities roughly the same in each season and just distributed across personnel differently, or was there an overall decline in "2nd & 4 or betters" ?

Further, I would want to know what other personnel & formations were used and their frequency under the same situational parameters, so I could determine whether the personnel changed more than the particular run/pass playcall.

Further still, I'd want to look at how the defenses were aligning themselves prior to the snap and whether a pattern of change could be seen from that perspective.

(note, that I'm not asking you to do more work or answer these questions, just things I'd want to look at to be able to understand what was happening).

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